Reserve Flow Analytics tracks where US government money actually goes — every dollar the Treasury spends, collects, and borrows — using Daily Treasury Statement data published by the US Treasury.
The daily note serves two purposes:
Signals — directional readings with a tested statistical edge. These tell you something actionable: price regime (ES vs its 20-day moving average) and CFTC positioning extremes. The track record for these is below.
Analysis — fiscal flow context that helps you understand the macro environment. The fiscal regime (Supportive / Neutral / Restrictive) describes whether the government is net adding or draining reserves from the private sector. This does not predict equity direction on its own — it explains the liquidity backdrop that other signals operate within.
1. Data — Treasury fiscal flows are fetched daily from the FiscalData API. CFTC positioning is updated weekly.
2. Classification — The fiscal regime is determined by comparing 5-day vs 20-day average net fiscal injection. The price regime is ES closing price vs its 20-day SMA. COT z-scores flag positioning extremes.
3. Signal logging — Every trading day's readings are logged with the date. Forward returns (5d, 10d, 20d) are computed after the fact against SPX, rates, USD, and VIX. Nothing is backfilled or adjusted — the log is append-only.
When ES trades above its 20-day simple moving average, we classify the price regime as bullish. Below it, bearish. This is the strongest standalone directional signal in the dataset.
CFTC Commitment of Traders z-scores flag when speculative positioning reaches extremes. Signals with 60%+ hit rates at 20 days are highlighted.
Combining the price regime with the fiscal flow regime. The price regime carries most of the directional signal; the fiscal regime adds context on the macro environment.
The fiscal regime classifies the direction of net government flows to the private sector. Supportive means the Treasury is adding reserves to the private sector faster than it is draining them. Restrictive means the reverse. This is not a directional equity signal — it describes the liquidity environment that other signals operate within.
During this sample period, SPX posted positive average forward returns under all three fiscal regimes. With only 7 Supportive observations and a dominant uptrend throughout, the fiscal regime has not demonstrated a standalone edge for equity direction. Its value is in describing the flow environment — whether reserves are being added or drained — which affects the conditions for other signals.
Daily fiscal flow analysis, price regime signals, COT positioning alerts, institutional-grade charts, and fresh ES price levels.
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